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In the most recent addition of its Hotel Horizons report, PKF Hospitality Research forecasts that revPar is now expected to drop 13.7 percent in 2009. PKF had earlier anticipated a 9.8 percent decline when the economic outlook wasn't as gloomy. The revised 2009 forecast is the result of a 7.8 percent fall off in occupancy and a 6.4 percent drop in ADR for the year. What's more, PKF does not anticipate a quarter-over-quarter gain in sales until Q1 2011.
Despite the bad news, a few markets will see the light at the end of the tunnel in the coming year. "All 50 markets forecast by PKF-HR are projected to experience an annual decline in revPAR in 2009," says R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR. "However, by the end of the year, two of the 50 markets are forecast to show year-over-year gains in their fourth quarter revPAR, and will sustain this growth into 2010."
In Minneapolis, PKF-HR forecasts a Q4 2009 revPAR gain of 6.8 percent over the same period in 2008. A weak Q4 2008 may explain the projected gains, though year-over-year increases in revPAR are expected to continue each and every quarter from the fourth quarter of 2009 through 2013.
In Orange County, California, hotels in and around Disneyland are forecast to experience a slight improvement in revPAR of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, followed by a big push of 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
To access the full report, click here.
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Industry Outlook Continues to Be Gloomy
March 18, 2009In the most recent addition of its Hotel Horizons report, PKF Hospitality Research forecasts that revPar is now expected to drop 13.7 percent in 2009. PKF had earlier anticipated a 9.8 percent decline when the economic outlook wasn't as gloomy. The revised 2009 forecast is the result of a 7.8 percent fall off in occupancy and a 6.4 percent drop in ADR for the year. What's more, PKF does not anticipate a quarter-over-quarter gain in sales until Q1 2011.
Despite the bad news, a few markets will see the light at the end of the tunnel in the coming year. "All 50 markets forecast by PKF-HR are projected to experience an annual decline in revPAR in 2009," says R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR. "However, by the end of the year, two of the 50 markets are forecast to show year-over-year gains in their fourth quarter revPAR, and will sustain this growth into 2010."
In Minneapolis, PKF-HR forecasts a Q4 2009 revPAR gain of 6.8 percent over the same period in 2008. A weak Q4 2008 may explain the projected gains, though year-over-year increases in revPAR are expected to continue each and every quarter from the fourth quarter of 2009 through 2013.
In Orange County, California, hotels in and around Disneyland are forecast to experience a slight improvement in revPAR of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, followed by a big push of 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
To access the full report, click here.
Save | Email | Print | Most Popular | Reprints |
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